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Amid slowing global growth, weaker external demand and rising protectionism, the near-term prospects for the East Asian region are expected to be softer, while the longer term economic fundamentals remain intact. But risks are elevated. Regional policymakers need to stand ready to mitigate the downside risks by using the available policy tools flexibly.
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The seminar is an opportunity to hear from the Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), Dr Hoe Ee Khor, senior policymakers from the Australian Government and leading academics on the risks and outlook for Asia’s economies.
Dr Khor will present on the key findings from the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2019, produced by AMRO. He will discuss the economic prospects for the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and China, Hong Kong – China, Japan and Korea, and a thematic study on “Building Capacity and Connectivity for the New Economy.”
The ASEAN+3 region remains resilient, anchored by sustained domestic demand. But the region faces heightened external risks. The biggest risk is still the escalation of global trade tensions from the imposition of additional tariffs by the United States and a slowdown in external demand. The region could also be hit by volatility shocks from turbulent financial markets given that expectations can change suddenly. Regional policymakers should calibrate a policy mix corresponding to their respective economies’ cyclical positions in the business and credit cycles, as well as their external positions and financial vulnerabilities. Longer-term policy priorities, such as building productive capacity and connectivity and deepening domestic capital markets, should press ahead. Dr Khor will also discuss how East Asia can prepare itself for the “new economy,” sustain robust growth, and continue to embrace and benefit from globalization—at a time when protectionist tendencies in the trade and technology space are rising.
Dr Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
Ms Meghan Quinn, Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group, Australian Treasury
Dr Amy King, Senior Lecturer at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, The Australian National University
Dr Shiro Armstrong, Director of the Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
Dr Adam Triggs, Director of Research of the Asian Bureau of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University