Source: AAP

Source: AAP

Australia needs a diplomatic sea change in the South China Sea

24 June 2015

Despite its calls for ‘more Jakarta and less Geneva’, the Abbott government appears to have fallen into a passive approach to multilateral diplomacy. And as tensions in the South China Sea ratchet up, the Australian public deserves to know more about why their regional foreign policy may suddenly be lurching onto a military track. If this is the case, the government needs to show that diplomacy has been seriously tried and found wanting. But the evidence is that multilateral diplomacy hasn’t been pursued with the required vigour or intensity.

Australia needs a diplomatic sea change in the South China Sea 24 June 2015 Author: Greg Raymond, ANU

Despite its calls for ‘more Jakarta and less Geneva’, the Abbott government appears to have fallen into a passive approach to multilateral diplomacy. And as tensions in the South China Sea ratchet up, the Australian public deserves to know more about why their regional foreign policy may suddenly be lurching onto a military track. If this is the case, the government needs to show that diplomacy has been seriously tried and found wanting. But the evidence is that multilateral diplomacy hasn’t been pursued with the required vigour or intensity.

On 2 June 2015, reports emerged that Australia was planning to send P-3 aircraft to the South China Sea to assert freedom of navigation. This follows former Defence Department deputy secretary and chair of the government’s Defence White Paper expert panel Peter Jennings call for Australia to be prepared to send military assets to the South China Sea to stop China asserting territorial control of sea lanes in that region. An Australian military aircraft operation in the current climate would be a big step, carrying significant risks of mishap, including collision and worse. But it also highlights the apparent lack of diplomatic energy being applied to this issue.

Previously, Australian South China Sea diplomacy appeared to be limited to statements urging claimants to adhere to the rule of law, maintain the status quo and finalise a Code of Conduct. In this respect there is substantial continuity with the previous Rudd and Gillard governments. Australia is aware that China and the ASEAN claimants own the problem — Australia has no territorial stake and hence has taken no position on the relative merits of claims. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in May, Defence Minister Kevin Andrews called for a halt to land reclamation activities.

But a number of developments led to the sudden hardening of Australia’s foreign policy to the point of considering a military deployment. There is frustration at the glacial pace of Code of Conduct negotiations in the South China Sea and at China for deliberately impeding these negotiations. There are concerns that China’s land reclamation activities are a preliminary step to announcing an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the area. Most critically, the US may have commenced its own freedom of navigation missions.

Since at least 2010, China has maintained that the South China Sea is part of its core interests. Why hasn’t the seriousness of the situation prompted more energetic Australian regional diplomacy before now?

Part of the answer is that, to paraphrase Hilary Clinton, it’s difficult to get tough with your banker. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop objected to the Chinese declaration of an ADIZ, which brought forth a storm of condemnation from China. There were fears the planned Free Trade Agreement would be derailed. Australia may also fear working with ASEAN countries to develop a common position and put more pressure on China. This would contribute to Chinese perceptions of attempted containment. The outcome has been that Australia’s leadership and media appears at times hypnotised by the China choice and trapped between fear and greed.

Australia needs to seek a middle path through multilateral diplomacy. It should be working intensively with ASEAN neighbours and China to develop common positions. Australia should not become fixated on grand bargains. It should take a piecemeal, pragmatic approach, seeking to solve problems individually. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton espoused comprehensive engagement in the region through defence, diplomacy and development. Australia should not neglect the latter two elements.

For the entire article by Greg Raymond, visit East Asia Forum

Updated:  22 March 2016/Responsible Officer:  Su-Ann Tan/Page Contact:  CAP Web Team