Eight years on from the 2014 military coup d’état, Thailand seems poised for political change. After years of youth-led protests, and slowing economic growth, the pressure is mounting on the current government of Prayuth Chan-ocha. Despite a loss of momentum within the protest movement, all indications point to an acute desire for change amongst most young voters.
The recent election victory of Chadchart Sittipunt as Bangkok Governor, with nearly 53% of the vote in a crowded field of candidates, points to an emerging shift in the political landscape. The Prime Minister’s party and electoral base seems to be fragmenting, with a break-away faction recently forming a new party. With an election national election due by early 2023 – but widely expected sooner – what is the likely outcome? Even with 250 senators likely supporting him, Prayuth’s chances of another term are far from certain.
What does this all mean for Thai foreign policy? A long-held assumption in Western capitals is that Thailand’s close relations with China will fade once Thailand emerges from the legacy of the 2014 coup. However, Thailand’s recent foreign policy history, with democratic and authoritarian governments continuing to deepen relations with China. What will a change in government mean for Thai-US relations, and Thai-Australian relations? Furthermore, Thailand is also hosting APEC this year. The Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November is likely to be eventful, given Russia’s likely participation and emerging global economic challenges. How will Thailand manage this high profile event?
The three speakers are all from the Asia Foundation’s Thailand office. Moderated by Paul Hutchcroft.
Thomas Parks is The Asia Foundation’s (TAF) country representative in Thailand and is currently a Distinguished Visitor at the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs. At TAF, he manages programs that address inequality, education reform, digital technology, and international relations. He also oversees the Foundation’s regional cooperation programs in Southeast Asia, with a strong focus on ASEAN. He has been based in Thailand since 2008 and has worked on programming in the Foundation’s Thailand office for more than 20 years in various roles. He has also managed programs and conducted research across ASEAN, with extensive experience in the Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Cambodia. He is currently working on a book entitled Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Evading a New Cold War (Bloomsbury Academic), due to be released in early 2023.
Pitchanuch Supavanich is regional program manager at The Asia Foundation in Bangkok. She manages Southeast Asia regional programs, particularly focused on ASEAN, in the areas of security cooperation, cross-sectoral response to trafficking in persons, and development cooperation. Before joining The Asia Foundation in March 2020, Pitchanuch was a senior officer at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, where she supported regional cooperation among 10 ASEAN Member States on labor and civil service. In her early years at the ASEAN Secretariat, she also supported ASEAN cooperation on rights of women and children, gender equality, social welfare, rural development and poverty eradication. Between 2008 and 2014, Pitchanuch worked for the then Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) in Thailand where she managed human security programs addressing trafficking in persons, child sex tourism and exploitation of migrant workers in Southeast Asia and Greater Mekong Subregion.
About the speaker
Don Pathan is a senior program officer for Regional Security Cooperation at The Asia Foundation, Thailand, with over 20 years of professional experience working in international relations, transnational crime, drugs and insurgencies in Southeast Asia, and separatist movements in Thailand’s Muslim-majority south. He joined the Foundation in March 2019. Pathan spent the past two decades covering diplomacy, international relations, transnational crime, and insurgency in Southeast Asia as a consultant for various international organizations and wrote for a wide range of publications and media outlets.
Zoom link - https://anu.zoom.us/j/87820627268?pwd=aUJkRExheHpRbUI1dzFhT1NoWkE2QT09
Meeting ID: 878 2062 7268
Password: 033854