Friends like these: Uncertainty and the persistence of hedging in Southeast Asia

Why do Southeast Asian states continue hedging despite growing threat perceptions towards China and increased pressure associated with great power competition? Based on three case studies (Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines), this thesis argues that a range of factors explain the persistence of hedging: uncertainty regarding U.S.-China rivalry; mixed views of China; a lack of consensus regarding threats; fear of alienating China; uncertainties about U.S. credibility; and a preference for self-help strategies. This project advances a neoclassical realist framework to show how domestic factors, including regime type, historical legacies, and leaders’ perceptions, produce variations in hedging across Southeast Asian states.