The 2023 Myanmar Update aims to understand, celebrate, and explicate the Myanmar people’s resistance to the 1 February 2021 coup. The military’s violent crackdown on what was initially a peaceful popular uprising provoked a near-countrywide revolutionary movement, which has brought together an array of different political, ethnic, and religious groups fighting for the shared goal of ending military rule. While differences exist in objectives and strategies, the establishment of organisations like the National Unity Government (NUG) and the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), as well as the numerous other formal and informal alliances, has arguably created an unprecedented sense of unity among Myanmar’s diverse peoples and raised widespread hope that this time the struggle may succeed.    

The conference seeks to explore the complexities of the revolutionary struggle; the effects of the coup on the state and economy; and, the myriad ways in which the people in Myanmar are coping with deepening violence and poverty.

• How has the coup and the popular response to it reshaped Myanmar politics?
• How are new armed groups forming, and how are they sustained?
• What has happened to the civil disobedience movement?
• What are the social, economic, and psychological implications of continued violence?
• How is the diaspora contributing to the revolution?
• How can foreign governments and the international aid community best support resistance to dictatorship?

We aim to address these kinds of questions, among others, in this conference.

The conference will take place at The Australian National University on Friday 21 July – Saturday 22 July 2023.

The two-day conference will feature scholars and experts from Australia, Myanmar, UK, North America and around the regions.

There are also pre-conference events on Thursday 20 July that we will list on our conference program with more information:

• 8.30am-4.30pm – Early Career Research workshop (by invitation)
• 4.30-5pm – Launch of Myanmar Update photo exhibition by Mayco Naing (Artist and Curator)
• 5.30-6.30 pm – Guest lecture ‘De-‘Area Studies’-izing Burmese History, The African (and African American) ‘Burma' Experience in the Twentieth Century’ by Michael Charney from SOAS, University of London

Convening Committee

• Cecile Medail - Visiting Fellow, Department of Political and Social Change, ANU, cecile.medail@anu.edu.au
• Morten Pedersen - Board member, Myanmar Research Centre, ANU, Morten.Pedersen@adfa.edu.au
• Yuri Takahashi - Lecturer and Convenor of the Burmese Program, ANU, Yuri.Takahashi@anu.edu.au
• Samuel Hmung - Research Officer, Myanmar Research Centre, ANU, Samuel.hmung@anu.edu.au

Sponsors

The 2023 ANU Myanmar Update is supported by the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, the International IDEA, and the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Join our panel discussion about the 2023 New Zealand election and its impact.

Pacific states and peoples inside global climate change negotiations (UNFCCC COP): from consensus, coherence to ‘climate updated’

While rentierism, tactical politics and coercion can come together to strengthen a regime, that is not necessarily a given. In the Iraq case, rentierism and effects from political decision-making led to an increased reliance on coercion by ruling regimes to maintain power.

Drawing upon literature on rentier state theory, the politics of survival, and the role of coercion in state consolidation as well as the author’s experience in Iraq, this thesis addresses the question of how resource dependency, elite strategies to gain or maintain control, and coercion have shaped state cohesion in Iraq?

Given the broad academic interest in the persistence of authoritarianism in different country contexts and the effects of international intervention, the contribution of this thesis is its integration of different theories to allow for a richer discussion regarding how elite competition and international intervention can impact state development.

SPEAKER

John D. Moore
With over 20 years of experience across the Islamic world serving in a mix of development, security as well as energy sector roles, John’s research interests focus on the relationship between resource dependent economies, politics, security, and development outcomes.

Having first engaged on Iraq during the 1997-1998 period while with the US Department of Defense, he spent several years working on and living in the country during the 2003 – 2012 period. John is currently pursuing his doctoral degree, having earned a Masters Degree in Political Economy and International Security Studies from the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and a Bachelor of Arts in International Affairs from the Virginia Military Institute.

Join via Zoom link
Meeting ID: 867 1834 3082
Password: 198184

We have heard enough now about US-China rivalry in Asia but not enough about its implications for the region. Join us and our three panelists to unpack this and more.

In an increasingly complex world, it is more crucial than ever to have a full picture of how international peacekeeping can be a force for good, but can also have potentially negative impacts on host communities. After thirteen years of presence in Haiti, the highly controversial United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti has now withdrawn. The UN’s legacy in Haiti is not all negative, but it does include sexual scandals, the divisive use of force to ‘clean up’ difficult neighbourhoods as well as a cholera epidemic, brought inadvertently by Nepalese peacekeepers that killed more than 8,000 Haitians and infected more than 600,000.

This book presents a unique multi-disciplinary analysis of the legacy of the mission for Haiti. It presents an innovative account of contemporary international peacekeeping law and practice, arguing for a new model of accountability, going beyond the outdated immunity mechanisms to foreground human rights.

This book launch will bring in conversation Nicolas Lemay-Hebert (ANU Coral Bell School), Rosa Freedman (University of Reading), and Siobhan Wills (Ulster University) over their recently published book The Law and Practice of Peacekeeping: Foregrounding Human Rights by Cambridge University Press. Buy it here.

Guest speakers include Lisa Sharland (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) and Charles T. Hunt (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology). Cecilia Jacob (ANU Coral Bell School) will facilitate this discussion.

Political machines have played a significant role in democracies around the world, as both political parties and politicians have relied on them for their electoral success. “The word ‘machine,’ explains Clarence Stone (1999, p. 446) “connotes an organization capable of delivering a vote with mechanical regularity.” While much literature argues that there has been a dramatic decline of machines in American cities (Banfield & Wilson 1963; Riedel 1964; Allswang 2019; Chubb 1981), political machines have continued to persist in many other parts of the world.

Contemporary studies of political machines are intertwined with analysis of clientelism and patronage, especially in developing countries. As a result, political machines tend to be quite narrowly understood mostly in clientelist terms. While there is ample data on how political machines operate in clientelist societies and how patronage is distributed through a web of brokers to voters, literature has provided a limited understanding as to how contemporary political machines evolve, endure, and decline.

Hicken et al. 2019 assert that local political machines are the building blocks of contemporary Philippine politics. Another recent study (Aspinall et al. 2022) demonstrates that Philippine political machines are relatively enduring as compared to their counterparts in Indonesia. In my initial investigation, however, I have found that there is in fact substantial variation in the longevity of local political machines. My study is focused on contemporary urban political machines in the Philippines, asking how they evolve and endure, and identifying the challenges that threaten their demise. With my focus on the Philippines, I will contribute to the understanding of political machine endurance in the context of a weak party system and personality-based politics.

About the speaker

Mary Joyce Bulao studies local politics and her interests include elections, urban political machines, local governance, and distributive politics. Prior to coming to ANU, she was a faculty member and the chairperson of the Social Sciences Department of the Ateneo de Naga University in the Bicol Region located in the southeastern tip of Luzon in the Philippines.

Panel 1
Supporting women’s agenda: Access to justice and security

Date: 6 December 2021
Time: 7-8pm AEDT
Venue: Zoom
Speakers: Habiba Sarābi, May Maloney, Samira Hamidi
Moderator: Farkhondeh Akbari

Watch panel 1 here

Panel 2
Prioritising actions with girls: Access to protection and rights

Date: 8 December 2021
Time: 7-8 pm AEDT
Venue: Zoom
Speakers: Fereshta Abbasi, Nicole van Rooijen Moderator: Bina D’Costa

Watch panel 2 here

To commemorate the ‘End Violence against Women’ campaign (25 Nov - Dec 10), join the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ANU and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for a two-part conversation on the importance of addressing this issue in Afghanistan.

Over the last two decades, the United States and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have invoked the rights of Afghan women and girls to help justify their military engagement in Afghanistan.

Following the US and NATO withdrawal, and with the recent spate of violence it is clear, that women and girls are facing immediate threats, in the country and elsewhere. In this context, what is the responsibility of the international community? What roles could human rights defenders and practitioners play in supporting women and girls?

Our experts will share their insights to offer an overview of different manifestations of violence against women and girls.

Recognising the importance of this issue and the different needs and attributes of girls/children, we have divided the conversations into two parts.

Speakers

Habiba Sarābi was a member of the Afghan Government’s negotiation team, former deputy chair of High Peace Council and reformer during post-Taliban reconstruction in Afghanistan. In 2005, she was appointed as Governor of Bamyan which made her the first Afghan woman to become a governor of any province in the country. She previously served as Afghanistan’s Minister of Women’s Affairs as well as Minister of Culture and Education. Sarābi has been instrumental in promoting women’s rights and representation and environmental issues.

Samira Hamidi is Regional Campaigner for Amnesty International South Asia Regional Office. Her work focuses on human rights, peace process, women’s rights and transitional justice issues in Afghanistan. Previously she has worked with the EU delegation in Afghanistan, Norwegian Embassy, UN Women, CMI, Folke Bernadette Academy and Sweden Embassy as Freelance Consultant focusing on human rights, women, peace and security and civil society issues.

May Maloney is the Deputy Head of the Addressing Sexual Violence team for ICRC based in Geneva. She has over a decade’s experience addressing sexual and gender-based violence, gender and diversity and social inclusion in the human rights, community development, torture and trauma, and humanitarian fields. Her work focuses on technical field support and leading the Sexual Violence team’s humanitarian diplomacy priorities, operational research outcomes, and external relations.

Fereshta Abbasi graduated with an LLB in Law and Political Science from Herat University and an LLM in International Law and Strategic Studies from the University of Aberdeen. She is an accomplished human rights campaigner, and a vocal advocate for human rights. She has highlighted human rights abuses in Afghanistan for several years, especially as a researcher for Human Rights Watch.

Nicole van Rooijen is a Protection Programme Manager for Asia and the Pacific for the International Committee of the Red Cross. With over 16 years of experience at the ICRC, Nicole has worked in various contexts, including Zimbabwe, Colombia, Afghanistan, Jordan and Gaza. Now at the ICRC headquarters in Geneva, she oversees protection work in the Asia-Pacific region. Nicole holds a Masters in Human Geography from the University of Amsterdam and has experience in protection training, as well as working with internally displaced people, on sexual and gender-based violence, and on community protection.

Moderators

Bina D’Costa is a Professor at the Department of International Relations, ANU Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs and an Australian Research Council Future Fellow. Through human rights framing, her research focuses on displaced children’s protection in global humanitarian emergencies in trafficking, child/early marriage, exploitative child labour and sexual abuse contexts. Previously, as a UN staff member, she has worked in the Middle East, Horn of Africa, and South Asia, including in Afghanistan and Pakistan with Afghan displaced communities.

Farkhondeh Akbari is a PhD student at the ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs. Her research focus is on diplomatic actors and peace settlements with non-state armed actors, looking at the negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Farkhondeh has worked at Afghanistan’s Independent Directorate of Local Governance, the United Nations Headquarters and Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission.

Norm scholarship in International Relations (IR) tends to investigate the contestation of actors operating at the peak of governance. It therefore overlooks the perspective of ordinary citizens who are directly affected by international norms and institutions. To address such shortcomings, Dr Ruji Auethavornpipat examines backlash against Rohingya refugees among grassroots actors in Malaysia.

In this presentation, Ruji captures backlash as a distinct and radicalized form of contestation. Backlashers do not merely target the validity of specific norms. They engage in normative re-ordering with a larger goal of dismantling existing societal fabric. He seeks to advance the norm literature by making two contributions. First, he integrates insights from backlash politics into IR norm research. Second, he surveys online hate speech to capture the reality of stakeholder engagement during COVID-19.

Dr Ruji Auethavornpipat is a Research Fellow in the Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, the Australian National University. His research examines norm contestation and migrant protection in Southeast Asia. Details of his activities and recent work can be found here: https://researchprofiles.anu.edu.au/en/persons/ruji-auethavornpipat

Australia and Thailand are both middle powers and allies of the United States. Both are important players in the Indo-Pacific, with Thailand the second largest economy in ASEAN and Australia a founding member of the Quad. But there are also significant differences, including with respect to relations with China and respective political systems.

This panel session will explore divergences and convergences in Australian and Thai foreign policy, the worldviews underpinning those positions, and how and where the two countries can cooperate in an era of increasing strategic competition and increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

Speakers

Susannah Patton is Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute and the Project Lead for the Asia Power Index. She has previously worked in various Southeast Asia-focused positions in the Australian government, including as a Senior Analyst in the Southeast Asia Branch at the Office of National Intelligence and as a diplomat in the Australian Embassy in Bangkok.

Jittipat Poonkham is Associate Professor of International Relations, Associate Dean for International Affairs and Director of International Studies Program in the Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University. He is an author of A Genealogy Of Bamboo Diplomacy: The Politics of Thai Détente with Russia and China (ANU Press 2022) and a co-editor of International Relations as a Discipline in Thailand: Theory and Sub-fields (Routledge 2019).

Moderator

Greg Raymond is a lecturer in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs researching Southeast Asian politics and foreign relations. He is the author of Thai Military Power: A Culture of Strategic Accommodation (NIAS Press 2018) and the lead author of The United States-Thai Alliance: History, Memory and Current Developments (Routledge, 2021).

View the report here.

Since the dawn of the atomic age, nuclear weapons have been central to the internal dynamics of US alliances in Europe and Asia. But nuclear weapons cooperation in US alliances has varied significantly over time and space. Partners in Deterrence goes beyond traditional accounts that focus on US policy regarding deterrence and reassurance, and instead places the objectives and influence of US allies at the centre of analysis. Through several case studies, Stephan Frühling (ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs) and Andrew O’Neil (Griffith University) reveal that US allies have wielded major influence in shaping nuclear weapons cooperation with the US in ways that reflect their own, often idiosyncratic, objectives.

Chaired by the Director of the Griffith Asia Institute, Professor Caitlin Byrne, this event will celebrate the launch of Partners in Deterrence by Australia’s pre-eminent strategist Emeritus Professor Hugh White.

Purchase the book here. Watch the launch here.

Professor Stephan Frühling, Australian National University

Professor Frühling teaches in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Coral Bell School, and has widely published on Australian defence policy, defence planning and strategy, nuclear weapons and NATO. Stephan was the Fulbright Professional Fellow in Australia-US Alliance Studies at Georgetown University in Washington DC in 2017. He worked as a ‘Partner across the globe’ research fellow in the Research Division of the NATO Defense College in Rome in 2015, and was a member of the Australian Government’s External Panel of Experts on the development of the 2016 Defence White Paper.

Professor Andrew O’Neil, Griffith University

Professor O’Neil is Acting Dean of the Graduate Research School at Griffith University. He has published widely in the broad areas of international relations and strategic studies and is currently chief investigator on projects focusing on the Australia-US alliance funded by the Australian Research Council and Australia’s Department of Defence. Andrew is a former member of the Australian Foreign Minister’s National Consultative Committee on Security Issues and is a member of the Australian Research Council’s College of Experts.

Professor Caitlin Byrne, Griffith University

Professor Byrne is Director of the Griffith Asia Institute. Caitlin’s research is focused on Australian Diplomacy with a special interest in Australia’s engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. Most recent research projects explore the role of leadership, soft power and public diplomacy – including people-to-people connections developed through international education, culture and sport – in developing Australia’s regional influence, relationships and reputation. Caitlin consults on occasion to government in the areas of strategic foreign policy and diplomatic practice.

Emeritus Professor Hugh White, Australian National University

Hugh White AO is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. His work focuses primarily on Australian strategic and defence policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, and global strategic affairs especially as they influence Australia and the Asia-Pacific. Hugh has served as an intelligence analyst with the Office of National Assessments, as a journalist with the Sydney Morning Herald, as a senior adviser on the staffs of Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, and as a senior official in the Department of Defence, where from 1995 to 2000 he was Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence, and as the first Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

Professor Desmond Ball AO was the leading figure in strategic studies of his generation and made a major contribution to global scholarship in a field of vital importance in the Cold War by arguing that limited nuclear war was simply not credible. US President Carter said that Des Ball’s “counsel and cautionary advice based on deep research, made a great difference to our collective goal of avoiding nuclear war.” In over 40 years’ service at ANU, Des made a remarkable contribution to this university as a scholar, teacher, academic leader, and mentor. This lecture commemorates his legacy as an outstanding scholar.

America’s renowned geostrategist, Zbigniew Brzezinski, proclaimed four years ago that the most dangerous scenario facing the US would be a grand coalition of China and Russia, united not by ideology but by complimentary grievances. The thesis proposed by Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb is that such a grand coalition of China and Russia is now fast becoming a geopolitical fact in an era of growing tensions among the major powers.

China and Russia are the two leading revisionist powers leagued together in their contempt for the West. Both these authoritarian states see a West that they believe is preoccupied with debilitating political challenges at home. The evidence now is accumulating to suggest that the relationship between China and Russia is at its closest since the 1950s. If the China-Russia military partnership continues its upward trend, it will inevitably seek to undermine the international security order by challenging the system of US-centred alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. Moreover, both China and Russia have outstanding territorial ambitions they seem intent on pursuing.

So, what are the chances of Beijing and Moscow concluding that now is the time to challenge the West and take advantage of what they both consider to be Western weaknesses? Is the strategic alignment between China and Russia in effect now a de facto alliance or not? Paul Dibb will explore the pros and cons of this proposition and its implications for Australia.

Paul Dibb is Emeritus Professor of strategic studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. He was Head of the Centre from 1991 to 2004. His previous positions include Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation, and Head of the National Assessments Staff in the National Intelligence Committee. He is the author of 5 books and 4 reports to government, as well as more than 150 academic articles and monographs about the security of the Asia-Pacific region, the US alliance, and Australia’s defence policy. He wrote the 1986 Review of Australia’s Defence Capabilities (the Dibb Report) and was the primary author of the 1987 Defence White Paper.

In recent years, a new school of thought has challenged the conventional notion that presidential systems in multi-party regimes face instability and ineffectiveness. This concept, known as "coalitional presidentialism," argues that presidents can achieve stability by forming post-electoral coalitions with legislative parties. In the case of Indonesia, Marcus Mietzner argues in his presentation that the country's post-2004 system goes beyond the boundaries of traditional coalitional presidentialism.

Unlike the exclusive focus of coalitional presidentialism scholars on alliances between presidents and legislative parties, Indonesian presidents, according to Mietzner's research, have treated non-party actors as equal coalition partners. These actors include representatives from the military, police, bureaucracy, local government, oligarchy, and Muslim organizations, all of whom are included in the cabinet. This inclusive approach aims to protect presidents not only from threats originating in the legislature but also from potential attacks by other veto powers.

Furthermore, Mietzner highlights that beyond cabinet representation, non-party actors are integrated into presidential administrations through continuous negotiation and recalibration. This process establishes clear boundaries for non-negotiable vested interests on both sides.

As a result, Indonesia's post-2004 presidentialism, as Mietzner argues, has achieved a remarkable level of stability when compared to international peers and the country's own transitional period between 1998 and 2004. However, this stability has come at a cost. Presidents have made significant concessions to their coalition partners, which has had detrimental effects on democratic quality. The regime that has emerged prioritizes stability for those who benefit from its existence while excluding those considered less important and unworthy of participation.

Marcus Mietzner is Associate Professor in the Department of Political and Social Change. His research interests include the political role of the military in Indonesia; Indonesian political parties, particularly campaign financing issues; elections in Indonesia; and comparative electoral politics in Southeast Asia.

The great American political scientist Seymour Lipset once said, “they that know only one country, know no countries”.

This panel addresses the issue of comparisons in our political discourse, and in particular “whataboutism” - the response China critics often make when it is pointed out that other countries have committed egregious actions similar in kind, if not scale, to China. By this, they mean that the comparison raised is a distraction from dealing with China’s actions. But this approach arguably sits uneasily with our desires to avoid double standards. This panel of experts will discuss the ethical and political aspects of “whataboutism”, with a focus on China.

Speakers

Ian Hall is a Professor in International Relations and the acting Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University. He is also an Academic Fellow of the Australia India Institute and a co-editor (with Sara Davies) of the Australian Journal of International Affairs.

Van Jackson is a political scientist and former Pentagon strategist specialising in Asia-Pacific security, the politics of US foreign policy, and the theory and practice of grand strategy. He is a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington, a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, and a Senior Associate Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies in Wellington, New Zealand.

Yun Jiang is the inaugural AIIA China Matters Fellow. Prior to this, she was the co-founder and editor of China Neican, and a managing editor of the China Story blog at the Australian Centre on China in the World.

Moderator

Gregory Raymond is a lecturer in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs researching Southeast Asian politics and foreign relations. He is the author of Thai Military Power: A Culture of Strategic Accommodation (NIAS Press 2018) and the lead author of The United States-Thai Alliance: History, Memory and Current Developments (Routledge, 2021).