The 2023 Defence Strategic Review placed deterrence and the ability to deploy Australian military forces forward of the continent as key elements of Australia’s defence strategy. In their report published by the Army Research Centre, Dr Andrew Carr and Professor Stephan Frühling examine the role of land forces for signalling deterrence commitments and draw lessons from historical experience for Australia and the Australian Army.

While the Australian Army has always had a key role in fighting wars, Australia’s current strategy casts them in a relatively new role – to prevent war by providing a credible deterrent to potential adversaries.The paper, published by the Australian Army Research Centre, looks specifically at the issues of deterrence, self-reliance and forward presence. They provide a framework for thinking about these issues in terms of the political and operational considerations and look at two hypothetical scenarios involving an Australian Army presence in the Cocos and Keeling Islands and the Philippines. They argue that achieving all three – deterrence, self-reliance and forward presence – will be very difficult and that the relationship with the US is likely to remain of central importance going forward.